I really wanted Penrith to win the GF (prefer underdogs/new winners) but they met a committed Melbourne defence which held them to zero points at half time.
For me at this point the GF was over – no favourite up 22 points at half time had ever been run down in the last 10 years (sample of 112 events) – and this was Melbourne we were talking about.
Errors killed Penrith but for me the errors that hurt them the most were made when line breaks or tries were on:
- Koroisau scoots from dummy half and drops ball (great deliberate slap out by Hughes) -> next set Melbourne score
- Crichton obstructs Lee -> Mansour try overturned
- Kikau half busts through line and knocks on -> next set penalty goal Melbourne
- Cleary pass intercepted -> try Vunivalu
- Half chance down the right and May throws pass forward -> Smith scores on ensuing possession chain
That’s 32 points wasted (counting Vunivalu intercept as a 12pt swing).
You often hear “you need to take your chances when they come” and “you need to defend your errors” and this rang true for the Panthers. Contrast this to Melbourne’s efforts:
- knock on from kick off -> hold Panthers out
- 1st attacking chance -> try Olam
- 2nd attacking chance Kenny Bromwich knock on -> scramble defence holds out 4 great attacking chances by Panthers
- 3rd attacking chance -> earn penalty goal
- Concede penalty for slowing the ruck -> Vunivalu intercept try
- 5th attacking chance -> Smith try
The videos below capture desperation defence by Melbourne and blown chances by Penrith in the 15th to 17th minute of the game.
When you are down 22-0 everything has to go your way to win. After early yardage exchanges in the second half Melbourne make an error to give Penrith an opportunity.
Unfortunately Leota drops the ball on the second tackle (groan) and from the ensuing scrum Papenhauzen scores.
From the kick-off set Melbourne make another error and once again Penrith make another attacking error through Kikau (head bangs against wall). Fortunately for Penrith Vunivalu knocks on the Hughes grubber which would have seen them go down 30-0.
The rest of the second half is like that for the Panthers with errors consistently undermining their chances.
So in summary – failed to take their chances, failed to defend their errors – my theme for the 2020 runners up Panthers.
For Melbourne I thought it was a great team effort – especially in defence. They compressed heavily and dared the Panthers to go around them.
There were opportunities for the Panthers to go around them early in the count (as I’ve mentioned in a prior post “Corner Trap – The Great Escape“). Several times Melbourne were so compressed they were only covering half the field.
I’m slightly critical of the Panthers for not adjusting their attack on early yardage options to go around Melbourne but to be fair Mansour/To’o/Edwards had been great for months punching through the middle – I wonder if this was a case of being too predictable?
Blow my Trumpet
I need to mention that my signature article “What Dane Gagai can teach us about Risk Management” and my post on “Defending Centre Field Scrums” played key roles in the outcome.
No cover for the Vunivalu intercept and defending 3 on 4 from a centre-field scrum for the Papenhauzen try.
Ryan Papenhauzen Clive Churchill winner?
This game was over at half time and Papenhauzen had barely contributed. I think he got the CC due to recency bias – he made two great plays in the second half scoring the last try and tapping back Cleary’s kick for touch.
For me I think either Nelson Asofo-Solomona or Suliasi Vunivalu deserved the CC for their first half performance which was where the game was won.
NAS ran hard all game, had some critical runs in the lead up to tries and some dominant defence (score with NAS on the field 22-6).
Vunivalu scored the intercept but also had some great yardage carries and bomb defusals. I think either would have been worthy winners.
Also the favourite Smith may have also suffered from recency bias. He finished with a kick dead, a holding down penalty and a forward pass error in the last 15 minutes and of course Melbourne’s only try of the second half was an individual effort.
Rugby League Strategy 